Just in the interests of accuracy, I said I knew two. One other was falsely accused.
Frankly I find the 117 and certainly 300* number of victims per molester to be rather unbelievable. That certainly wasn't the case in the instances that I'm familiar with. I'd like to see the supporting documentation. In such a tightly controlled and paranoiacally (is that a word?) observed society as Jehovah's Witnesses I just don't think that could happen. Who even knows 117 kids?
Yes, I saw your "IF." However, I don't think many did and they immediately started treating the numbers like Gospel)That happens most of the time when someone trots out some nice negative statistics. A much higher burden of proof is required for anything positive about the Organization.
Yes, I'd really like to see a valid statistical sample on this issue. I'm fairly familiar with the polling process and I'm not sure this falls into the same category as asking someone if they prefer Bush to Gore. I understand your methodology but am not yet convinced of its validity. I'm very familiar with testing batch lots of components and as you say, the results cannot be extrapolated to large numbers outside the batch which seems to be what you're doing here. The nice thing about batches of components is you can really get your hands around something and you have the ability to use historical data to support the validity of your testing. Yes, you used 'conservatism' but you used it arbitrarily, too many assumptions for my taste.
This is a serious issue, even one molester is too many. I'd really like to see it nailed down.
As a side comment. I've found your justice series posts very interesting. I've got a few horror stories of my own, but not as many as you. I have to say that most judicial cases I've seen have been handled pretty much according to the specified procedures and with relatively few injustices within the framework laid out by the Organization.